Greater Twin Cities United Way

Wednesday morning I went to United Front 2010, sponsored by United Way and General Mills. The event was a half-day conference focused on the nonprofit sector in the new economy. Tom Stinson, the state economist, was the keynote speaker. The good news: The recession is over. But the Great Recession and demographic changes are going to change the economic landscape in Minnesota as far into the future as we can see. Stinson (and others) are calling this the New Normal.

The demographic changes include the aging of our population (we are going to see large increases in the 55-75 age group in the next 10 years) and very slow growth on the part of the labor force. What this means for the near future:

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• More retirees
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• Less consumption, more saving
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• Slower economic growth
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• Higher interest rates
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• More uncertainty about the future
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In 2020, the number of Minnesotans age 65+ will outnumber school-age kids—this is a huge demographic shift which could lead to some challenging funding priorities between health care (age 65+) and education (ages 5-17). Overlay a $5.8 billion budget gap (expected for Minnesota in 2012-2013) on that challenge and it doesn’t take a crystal ball to see exceptionally rocky roads ahead.

But all is not lost, and according to Stinson, this New Normal plays to Minnesota’s strengths. Education has been the key to Minnesota’s productivity and prosperity, and if we make the right decisions and investments now, they will help us weather—and perhaps even prosper in—the New Normal.

You can view Dr. Stinson’s complete powerpoint or, if you’d rather see and hear the presentation, check out the video.